Moody’s optimism turned sour: Need to review the FRBM Act, 2003
[By Dushyant Sharma and Sanskriti Shrimali] The authors are students at Nirma University, Institute of Law Introduction One of the premier rating agency, Moody’s has recently joined the league of other two rating agencies in downgrading India’s status to the lowest investment grade option. In its report dated 1st June 2020, the agency stated that it has downgraded India’s sovereign rating to Baa3 from Baa2 with a negative outlook which reflects deeper stresses in the economy and financial system of the country. The report also explicitly mentioned that this action has not been taken in the wake of pandemic and has not been affected by its implications. Key reasons highlighted for adopting this stand are worsening fiscal discipline, rising stress in the financial sector and prolonged period of slow growth compared to India’s potential. Further one more downgrade would lead India to ‘Junk’ rating. This action would seriously impair the country’s creditworthiness as it would become difficult to raise money from the international market coupled with higher interest rates. However, the agency maintained that this event is unlikely to happen in the next 24 months while citing caution that if the current economic scenario worsens and growth does not pick up then the junk bond rating would be suicidal for the government. It should be noted that it is the same Moody’s which had approved government’s institutional reforms back in November 2017. So, why the optimism of Moody’s turned sour towards India, and what reform policies should be adopted by the country to push the economy back on its track? Among the major reasons for downgrading India’s rating, lack of fiscal discipline continues to be the prominent one. Prudent management of public finances demands a comprehensive fiscal rule to be adopted by the country. For instance, a fiscal rule is a legislated cap being put on budgetary aggregate to maintain the fiscal discipline of the country.[i] The importance of maintaining a fiscal discipline is greatly emphasised by the developed and emerging economies. In line with the same, India also enacted Fiscal responsibility and Budget management Act (FRBM), 2003 to maintain the state of finances in the country. The act provides the fiscal deficit to be reduced steadily to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 31st March, 2021. Despite the mandate, the government has been breaching its own fiscal target for the past few years with the experts warning that the deficit numbers for FY 21 could be as high as 7% of GDP against the budgeted 3.5. A rise in the percentage of fiscal deficit is obvious this year as the first two months of FY21 has seen highly restricted economic activity leading to lower tax collection and increased spending of government due to COVID-19 pandemic. In budget session of 2020-21, the union government announced to spend around Rs. 30,42,230 crore this year and the shortfall of Rs.7,96,337 crore against the expenditure would be financed through borrowing, but the Corona crisis has completely disrupted this calculation. Amid this crisis, various economist believed that estimated revenues of the government would take a big hit due to stalled economy for nearly 2 months. The economic stimulus of Rs. 20 lakh crores, out of which actual spending is merely Rs. 1 lakh crore clearly shows the inability of the government to spend more. This clearly signifies that the past deviations from the fiscal targets is seriously impairing the ability of the government to spend more in times of serious economic crisis like the present one. To avoid free falling of the Indian economy due to such a gross negligence, it’s high time to take required reforms. In 2016 the government has realised this need and constituted a committee headed by N.K. Singh. Even after the report submission no major steps have been taken. Measures and recommendations Independent Fiscal Council In India lack of an independent institution is serious lacuna in securing compliance to the letter and spirit of fiscal rules.[ii] A sound fiscal policy is a key to maintain the overall macroeconomic stability of the country. By 2014 more than 80 countries have adopted some or the other fiscal rules and 35 of them have constituted autonomous fiscal councils to evaluate fiscal policies and performance of the government.[iii] As India is increasingly getting integrated with the world economy, the need for this council is indefeasible to foster the trust of international investors. This council may be tasked with the work to identify the best rule or combination of rules to be applied in India. For instance, there are four fiscal rules namely Budget Balance Rule, Debt rule, Expenditure rule and Revenue rule. Apart from this, the council would also oversee that the fiscal target of the government would not go off track and suggest measures for the same. At present all these activities are performed by various institutions like the Finance Commission, NSO and Office of CAG. An Integrated autonomous institution in the form of Fiscal Council must assume all these functions to cater to the emerging needs of the market. 14th Finance Commission have also advocated for such an Independent body, tasked with maintenance of fiscal discipline in the country. Transparency provided by this council would help to deter discretionary shifts from the existing fiscal targets of the government. At present when the whole world is looking towards India as an alternative to China, the constitution of this council must be announced by the Union government in the next budget session of 2021. The existence of such independent council can be seen in developed economies like UK (Office of Budget responsibility) and USA (Congressional Budget Office). These councils provide budget analysis as well as evaluate that legislative actions do not result in breach of spending levels set by the budget resolutions. Debt-ceiling The rising public debt to GDP ratio of India is an area of concern. With an estimated 69% of public debt to GDP ratio, the country has been dampening fiscal prudence for the past 70 years. An obvious but often missed
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