CMA’s Clearance of Microsoft-Inflection AI: Global AI Market Impact
[By Soujanya Boxy] The author is a student of National Law University, Odisha. Introduction There is a booming interest among tech giants worldwide to fuel their technological growth with the adoption of AI. In their drive to lead in the AI race, tech giants are pouring billions into AI start-ups, hiring their key employees and acquiring their valuable assets and expertise. However, global competition regulators’ participation in market studies and ongoing investigations into various AI mergers demonstrate their determination to tackle competition issues arising from the AI space. In its recent ruling, the United Kingdom (UK)’s principal competition regulator, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) approved the Microsoft-Inflection AI merger, observing no realistic prospect of a substantial lessening of competition (SLC) as a result of horizontal unilateral effects. The ruling gathered newsworthy attention because it will likely have global implications for the AI market and market players seeking mergers with tech giants. Just a few days later, the European Commission (EC) too decided to terminate its investigation into this merger, citing insufficient jurisdictional scope. The article analyses the CMA ruling, which has implications for competition in the AI landscape. This ruling could potentially encourage more diverse and collaborative AI development, boosting innovation. Deep Dive into Tech Titans’ Quasi Mergers with AI Firms Quasi-mergers are trending among merger arrangement options in the technology sector due to their unique characteristics and benefits. These kinds of mergers represent the middle ground between direct competition and takeovers. The key benefit is that the firms can join forces, without sacrificing independence. As per The Economist, these forms of partnerships prove valuable in the face of higher trade barriers, regulatory concerns, and high interest rates. In the recent past, tech giants, notably Amazon, Microsoft and Google have been most engaged with quasi-acquisitions of some foundational model firms, like Adept, Inflection AI and Character AI. Some other AI firms being acquired by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Nvidia, include Mistral AI, DeepMind, Anthropic, Hugging Face. The quest among the powerful seven- Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Tesla to be at the forefront of AI development, is likely to spur technology dealmaking. Nvidia is a major player in the AI chip market, with its investments in five AI-related firms, as it disclosed in a regulatory filing early this year. One noteworthy investment was a US$675 million deal in Figure AI, an AI startup, which included Microsoft, making it the largest AI fundraising round of Q1. There has been a dramatic increase in spending on AI by tech giants, totalling $160 billion, in the first half of this year, highlighting the growing fervour among firms to strengthen their AI capacities. Besides external investments, these firms spend heavily on their own AI R&D. For instance: Microsoft’s $13 billion investment in OpenAI. The current AI landscape provides competitive advantages to tech giants. It equally poses exit challenges for venture capitalists (VCs), making it difficult for them to realise returns on their investments. Tech giants have more than financial backing to offer like cloud credits business networks, and other resources that VCs may be unable to replicate. This reduced the pressure on AI startups to go public. Considering the tech giants’ perspective, it’s pivotal to examine the reasons behind their large-scale AI spendings and the anticipated returns. Tech giant CEOs expressed that despite capital expenditure and uncertainty around returns, they strongly preferred overbuilding their AI capacities than risking underbuilding. According to them, AI demand is outpacing supply. I/O Fund further emphasised the primary risk of being not “early enough” to capitalise on AI trends. Another important reason is the effectiveness of quasi-acquisitions as an alternative to in-house innovation, which involves the risk of failure and first-mover challenges. A Global Footprint of Competition in AI Competition regulators in the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) have been actively engaging in investigations, workshops and other initiatives to determine potential competition risks across the AI ecosystem. The US, UK and EU competition enforcers are concerned about competition risks posed by AI. In particular, they noted the concentration of AI models, heavy reliance on already concentrated markets, such as cloud computing, and the control of key inputs by a handful of firms. They are wary of AI partnerships, as these might be used by large incumbents to entrench market power. The Department of Justice (DOJ)’s Jonathan Kanter, highlighted concerns that acqui-hiring could enable tech giants to stifle competition by absorbing the expertise of smaller firms, without acquiring them outright. Furthermore, the DOJ and FTC have divided the regulatory responsibilities for AI regulation. The DOJ will oversee the conduct of a large chip manufacturer, and the FTC will investigate into anticompetitive conduct of major software firms. The EC and national competition authorities in the EU have launched investigations into virtual worlds and generative AI. Their active participation in the regulatory drive is evidenced by the conclusion of a workshop, studies, and reports published to analyse competition concerns arising from the emerging AI market. The EC’s policy brief, ‘Competition in Generative AI and Virtual Worlds’, specified critical bottlenecks including data limitation, talent scarcity and hardware constraints. Other barriers are high switching costs, market concentration, facilitated by established ecosystems, network effects and economies of scale of tech giants. Given the profound impact of AI on the competitive landscape for firms, it requires careful evaluation of market competitiveness to understand regulatory concerns. The Forbes’ sixth annual AI 50 identified the most promising privately-held AI firms. Data showed the AI market is highly competitive, having numerous firms developing innovative technologies. While OpenAI ($11.3 billion) and Anthropic ($7.7 billion) have gained considerable funding, other players like Character ai ($193 million), Adept ($415 million), and Figure AI ($754 million) are also making significant strides. Lower levels of funding for some firms do not necessarily indicate a competitive disadvantage. This dynamic market is attracting partnerships from firms like IBM and Salesforce, suggesting a strong demand for AI. Overall, the AI Market is characterised by strong competition, with new entrants (OpenAI, Cohere, Anthropic) competing fiercely
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